Terminal preview · example views

Inside the Terminal.

RegimeSignal is full-cycle S&P 500 foresight — bull, bear, and every turn in between. A guided look at how subscribers see the market through the Terminal — the daily market call, the four early warning signals, the velocity gauges, and the regime history that frames every read.

The market's next chapter — before it's written.

Example · not live data

Active Regime · S&P 500 · Mar 14, 2025

Live

Bull Fading

Bull momentum is fading. Warning signs are getting harder to ignore. — caution increasing.

HybridBrain Risk

5.98 Elevated

3-AI council + Developer · developer 6.8

Watching For

Correction more likely

Conditions deteriorating · a dip is more probable now

Posture

Stay engaged · review exposure

No signal firing yet · prepare for possible turn

· Live Market Intelligence

3-AI council + Developer · refreshed every 15 min
MBS T2 watch elevated · correction probability drifting higherBull Velocity — third deceleration print this quarterBRS armed · two of four conditions present, unconfirmedHybridBrain™ ERI 5.98 · elevated exogenous riskRRS quiet · no recovery sequence in progressMBS T2 watch elevated · correction probability drifting higherBull Velocity — third deceleration print this quarterBRS armed · two of four conditions present, unconfirmedHybridBrain™ ERI 5.98 · elevated exogenous riskRRS quiet · no recovery sequence in progress

Four Early-Warning Signals · Full Market Cycle

PULLBACK

−5% drawdown risk

Quiet

Probability 0.42

MBS T1 · 83% precision

CORRECTION

−10% drawdown ahead

Watching

Probability 0.31

MBS T2 · 84% precision

BEAR MARKET

−20% regime forming

Quiet

Composite 18

BRS · 86% precision

RECOVERY

+10% bull confirmed

Not yet

Probability 0.32

RRS · 82% precision

Cycle position · You are here

5 phases · live

BEAR

−20%+

UNDERPERFORM

−10% correction

WATCHING

−5% pullback risk

You are here

BULL

Constructive

OUTPERFORM

+10% recovery

Today's note

Bull Velocity has decelerated for three consecutive reads as breadth narrows beneath the index. MBS T2 watch is elevated and BRS is armed but unconfirmed. Posture: hold, tighten risk, await confirmation or reset.

Model reading —

Next refresh —

SignalProbabilityState
  • Pullback −5%

    MBS-T1 · 4-month window · fires ≥ 0.66

    — % accuracy · 95% CI [—,—%]

    0.42

    OOS 154 mo · v15.1

    Quiet
  • Correction −10%

    MBS-T2 · 4-month window · fires ≥ 0.50

    — % accuracy · 95% CI [—,—%]

    0.31

    OOS 154 mo · v15.1

    Watch
  • Bear market −20%

    BRS · 2-layer · alert 4 of 22 with ≥2 breach

    — % accuracy · 95% CI [—,—%]

    18.4

    composite · OOS 304 mo · v15.3

    Quiet
  • Recovery +10%

    RRS · 4-month window · fires ≥ 0.73

    — % accuracy · 95% CI [—,—%]

    0.32

    OOS 154 mo · v15.2

    N/A
How these are produced: Walk-forward expanding-window protocol with monthly refit and 1-month lagged features. Probabilities recomputed monthly when new FRED macro data publishes. Accuracy + precision on locked out-of-sample windows. 95% CI = Wilson interval on locked OOS confusion matrix. Locked validation files (PhD review).

HybridBrain Risk · 90 days

Daily consensus

0–3 Qui3–5 Wa5–7 Ele7–10 Crit
90d ago60d ago30d agoToday
5.50

Daily HybridBrain consensus over the past 90 days

Directional pressure

Live gauges

Economic Health

vs bull-avg 75 · ▲ +6

81 / 100

Strong

Composite of 6 macro indicators · live · not a validated signal

Economic Health Index — Contextual Indicator (not part of Bull Velocity signal) ▼

Bull Velocity · Active

Fading

Bear Regime Signal · factor direction

helpers up · hurters down

-16.9%
+2bp
-5.4%
+1.24
+0.5pp
-0.3pp
Oil_YoY2y10y_spreadSPX_1yr_retVIXCPI_YoYBreadth_200dma
● helps bullweighted by BRS importance● hurts bull

Market prediction · factor direction

helpers up · hurters down

-16.9%
+2bp
-5.4%
+1.24
+0.5pp
-0.3pp
Oil_YoY2y10y_spreadSPX_1yr_retVIXCPI_YoYBreadth_200dma
● 2 helpers (+)● 4 hurters (−)

Bull market duration · Historical context

live · S&P 500 cycle anchors

How long the current bull market has run versus the historical average and the longest bull on record.

Average bull
1,742 d
Current bull
629 d
Longest bull
3,453 d
Current bull at 629 days = 36% of the historical average and 18% of the longest bull on record.

Average = 1,742 days across post-1926 S&P 500 bull markets · longest = 3,453 days (Oct 1990 – Mar 2000, dot-com bull). Current bull derived from cycle_context.cycle_start_label or bull_duration_months.

S&P 500 CAPE Shiller · Historical context

live · research defaults pending

Where the current 10-year cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) sits versus historical regime averages. Higher CAPE = richer valuation, less downside cushion.

Bear trough avg
14.0×
Long-term average
17.0×
Correction avg
19.0×
Bull market avg
22.0×
High zone (?)
30.0×
Extreme zone (?)
38.0×
Current
33.4×
CAPE at 33.4× is in the high zone — well above the long-term average. Less valuation cushion if earnings disappoint.

CAPE = price ÷ trailing 10-year inflation-adjusted earnings (Shiller). Bar widths scaled 0–40× CAPE. All values from server data — current from FRED/Shiller feed, historical anchors from model-facts file.

RegimeSignal · Daily News & Model Market Brief

AI-generated news digest · what could move the BRS score

Market events · economic releases · earnings · geopolitics — filtered through the 3-AI council + Developer overlay.

Preview · sample digest

Sample · Today's digest preview

4 items · auto-curated
  • MACRO

    CPI print at 8:30 ET · core sticky-services in focus

    A hot print pressures the BRS confirmation path; a soft print eases MBS T2 watch.

  • RATES

    10Y yield drifting toward range top

    Sustained move >4.6% historically coincides with Bull Velocity deceleration prints.

  • EARNINGS

    Mega-cap guidance week · breadth divergence widening

    Equal-weight underperformance is one of four BRS preconditions — already present.

  • GEO · ERI

    Exogenous risk index nudged 5.98 → 6.02

    Council consensus: elevated, not acute. No standalone signal — feeds HybridBrain™ overlay.

Digests are educational signal context · not investment advice

Example layout · figures illustrative · not current market data

Early warning, before consensus.

The RegimeSignal framework — four walk-forward validated prediction signals and Bull / Bear Velocity gauges for the S&P 500. Not yet publicly available — join the waitlist to be notified when subscriptions open.

Important disclosures

All views shown on this page are examples of past market calls and interface layouts. They are not interactive and do not reflect current market data, the live model state, or today's RegimeSignalsignals.

Live readings, the daily market call, current signal states, Bull / Bear Velocity, and HybridBrain™ exogenous risk are available to active subscribers only. A one-week free trial provides full access to the live model.

RegimeSignal is a market intelligence and research product. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of any kind. All precision, false-positive, and forward-window figures are derived from walk-forward validation and describe historical signal behaviour; they do not guarantee future results.