BRS86%¹
precision when fires
precision when fires
Bear Regime Signal™
Sees bear markets coming as they form — not after the damage is done. Fires Bear Alerts as the early warning layer for −20% regime risk.
Bear Alert · regime classifier
The model · HybridBrain™
Four early warning signals.
Two velocity gauges.
The S&P 500's next move, surfaced before consensus catches it — early bear-regime detection, pullback and correction warnings, and recovery confirmation — paired with continuous Bull and Bear Velocity gauges. The four classifier signals are walk-forward validated, averaging ~84% precision on historical validation with an aggregate ~4% false-positive rate and a ~4-month average forward window. Powered by AI, algorithms, and the proprietary HybridBrain™ engine.
Example · not live dataToday's call · Illustrative example
Active regime
Bull — Weakening
Velocity decelerating · 3 weeks running
Bear formation risk
Elevated
2 of 4 signals in caution
Signal 1
OKTrend
Structurally intact
Signal 2
CautionBreadth
Narrowing
Signal 3
OKVolatility
Low regime
Signal 4
CautionMacro
Liquidity tightening
S&P 500 · regime history (12 months)
today →JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMay
BullWeakeningCorrectionRecovery
Illustrative interface · subscriber platform shown separately
The signals
Four validated models. One full-cycle advance forecast read.
Each signal is independently constructed and walk-forward validated. Together they cover the full S&P 500 cycle — from pullback warning to bear regime to confirmed recovery. Bull Velocity and Bear Velocity provide continuous directional context within each regime.
MBS T183%²
precision when fires
precision when fires
Market Break Signal — Tier 1
Calls −5% pullbacks ahead of the move and triggers the Neutral state — a tactical heads-up before the dip.
Pullback · −5% · Neutral state trigger
MBS T284%³
precision when fires
precision when fires
Market Break Signal — Tier 2
Calls −10% corrections four months ahead — the kind that actually hurt — and hands off to BRS when conditions deepen toward bear.
Correction · −10% · Underperform trigger
RRS82%⁴
precision when fires
precision when fires
Regime Recovery Signal™
Calls bull-market recovery (+10%) ahead. Stays silent during fake-out rallies, speaks up when the bull is real — the high-conviction recovery confirmation, historically associated with durable bull recoveries.
Recovery · +10% confirmation
Precision percentages reflect walk-forward out-of-sample validation. See validation footnotes.
Input factors
The four factor families the classifiers watch.
Classifiers (BRS, MBS T1, MBS T2, RRS) sit above factors (Trend, Breadth, Volatility, Macro). Each signal watches 25–35 granular factors grouped into these four families.
The data engine
The data behind the factors.
The four factor families — Trend, Breadth, Volatility, Macro — aren't abstractions. Each is computed from live, sourced data, refreshed every market day. No manual inputs. No stale spreadsheets. The model is only ever as current as this morning's economic prints.
FRED — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
24 series · LiveYield curve, CPI, core PCE, breakeven inflation, payrolls, GDP, credit spreads, Fed balance sheet, bank reserves, SOFR, lending standards, savings rate, real retail sales, housing permits, money supply, industrial production, jobless claims, and more.
Yahoo Finance
Real-timeS&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, Russell 2000, sector ETFs, intraday equity quotes.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
Live7-indicator composite sentiment (momentum, breadth, put/call, safe-haven demand, junk-bond demand, volatility, price strength).
AAII Investor Sentiment
Weekly · since 1987The longest-running retail sentiment series — a contrarian read on crowd positioning.
Perplexity Sonar
LiveReal-time news and sentiment across major financial publications, AI-summarized and scored on regime-relevant headlines.
Live energy futures
LiveOil futures curve — contango/backwardation as an energy & geopolitical stress signal.
24 Federal Reserve series. Six live sources. One continuously updated read on where the S&P 500 cycle stands right now.
Factor 01
Trend Integrity
Tracks the structural integrity of the prevailing S&P 500 trend — flagging the conditions under which historically durable bull moves have decayed.
- Walk-forward validated
- Refit monthly
- Bull regime context
- Early deterioration flags
Factor 02
Breadth & Participation
Quantifies the underlying participation of the broader market. Narrowing breadth has historically preceded weakening within bull markets — this signal surfaces it early.
- Internal participation
- Leadership concentration
- Bull-market weakening detection
- Hidden landmine surfacing
Factor 03
Volatility Regime
Identifies transitions in the volatility regime that have historically preceded corrections, drawdowns, and bear formations — separating noise from signal.
- Regime classification
- Drawdown precursors
- Correction context
- Bear formation precursors
Factor 04
Macro & Liquidity
Synthesises the macro and liquidity backdrop that historically validates or invalidates ongoing bull regimes — the conditions under which markets stop tolerating rich valuations.
- Liquidity conditions
- Macro confirmation
- Bull regime support
- Bear regime catalysts
Gauge
Bull Velocity
A continuous directional gauge for the strength of an active bull market. Designed to identify deceleration and fatigue while the market is still rising — before weakness becomes consensus.
- Bull regime strength
- Deceleration detection
- Fatigue signaling
- Forward-looking
Gauge
Bear Velocity
The downside counterpart to Bull Velocity. Measures the developing intensity of bear pressure so genuine bear regimes can be distinguished from routine pullbacks.
- Bear regime intensity
- Drawdown context
- Pullback vs. regime
- Recovery confirmation
Methodology
Walk-forward by design.
Every signal is constructed, tested, and re-validated using protocols intended to reflect how the framework would behave in real time.
Walk-forward validation
The four classifier signals (BRS, MBS T1, MBS T2, RRS) are evaluated using out-of-sample protocols, not in-sample curve fitting.
Expanding-window refits
Classifiers are refit on a regular cadence with expanding history, so the system can adapt as markets evolve.
AI-augmented construction
Machine learning is used to sharpen signal calibration — methodology and definitions remain transparent.
Signal Track Record · Full Cycle
Walk-Forward OOS
Market change signal — Each dot below is a real signal fire on the S&P 500. The arrow shows what happened next.
This is the model's track record — not a forecast, the receipts.
BRS·model said a bear market was coming
T1 / T2·model said a drop or correction was coming
RRS·model said the bull was real — safe to re-engage
Arrow·what the market actually did next
Red band·a bear market the model called ahead
5/26/26·dated snapshot of the four signals (not live — see Market Terminal below for current reads)
Dated snapshot · 5/26/26 · not live— for current reads see the Market Terminal below
BRS
51
No alert · neutral
MBS T1
0.42
Below 0.66 · dormant
MBS T2
0.18
Below 0.50 · dormant
RRS
0.21
Below 0.75 · dormant
BRS · Bear
86% precision · 304 mo · 7 of 7 OOS (+1990 in-sample)
MBS T1 · −5%
83% precision · 154 mo · 35 fires
MBS T2 · −10%
84% precision · 154 mo · 27 fires
RRS · +10%
82% precision · 154 mo · 11 fires
Illustrative chart shape until backend serves real fire dates · all precisions, counts, and OOS windows above are locked and real.
Early warning, before consensus.
The RegimeSignal™ framework — four walk-forward validated prediction signals and Bull / Bear Velocity gauges for the S&P 500. Not yet publicly available — join the waitlist to be notified when subscriptions open.