Research Disclosures & Risk Disclaimers

Plain English Summary

RegimeSignal™ is market regime intelligence — a research product that helps you read where the S&P 500 is in its full bear/recovery/bull cycle. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and not a substitute for a financial professional who knows your situation. Historical results are reported transparently with caveats. Past market signal record does not guarantee future results.

Who We Are / Aren't

• RegimeSignal™ is published by Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company.
• We are not a registered investment adviser (RIA).
• We are not a broker-dealer, financial advisor, or fiduciary.
• We do not manage client money or hold custody of any assets.
• Nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security.

How to Use Our Signals

RegimeSignal™ outputs are designed to be one input among many in a disciplined research process. They describe the current market regime and the probability of regime change — they do not tell you what to buy, when to enter or exit a position, or how much risk to take. Subscribers should consult a qualified financial professional before making portfolio decisions, and should never use a single signal as a substitute for personalized advice.

Walk-Forward Validation

Walk-forward validation means the model is repeatedly retrained on data up to a given point in time and then tested on the next out-of-sample window it has never seen — moving forward through history one window at a time. This avoids the most common backtest mistake, where a model is tuned with knowledge of the future. Reported precision and false-positive rates for Bear Regime Signal (BRS), Market Break Signal Tier 1 (MBS T1), Market Break Signal Tier 2 (MBS T2), and Regime Recovery Signal (RRS) reflect this protocol on the locked out-of-sample window.

Independent Review Status

An independent PhD methodology review is currently in progress. Locked specifications, training data, frozen feature weights and thresholds, and the validation/reproduction scripts are available for inspection by qualified independent reviewers under non-disclosure agreement. No retraining occurs post-publication; today's signal outputs are bit-reproducible from raw FRED and market data inputs via the locked validation scripts.

Forward-Looking Statements

Materials on this site may contain forward-looking statements about market regimes, probabilities, and signal behavior. Forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and involve known and unknown risks. Past results — including historical walk-forward out-of-sample results — does not guarantee future results. No representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Risk Disclosure

• Market risk. Exposure to equity markets involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. The S&P 500 can and does experience drawdowns of significant magnitude.
• Methodology risk. Statistical models, including walk-forward validated classifiers, can fail in regimes that differ structurally from those in the training data. Selection-effect bias (see RRS) and small-N caveats (see BWS, BES) limit how much weight any single signal should carry.
• Data risk. Signal inputs depend on third-party data sources (FRED, market data vendors). Data revisions, vendor outages, or upstream errors can affect signal outputs.
• Update / pause risk. Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC may pause, delay, or suspend signal publication for operational, methodological, or compliance reasons. Subscribers should not assume continuous availability.

Contact

Questions about disclosures, methodology, or independent review access: contact us.