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Terms, Disclaimers & Intellectual Property

Subscriber Agreement & Platform Disclosures

All framework, methodology, validation files, regime classifications, and analytical output are the proprietary intellectual property of Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Subscriber access is for personal research use only. Use of the platform constitutes acceptance of these Terms.

1. Subscriber License — What Is Granted

Upon successful subscription, Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company ("Cronus"), grants a limited, non-transferable, non-exclusive, revocable license to access RegimeSignal™ output for the subscriber's personal research and decision-support purposes. This license is bounded by the subscription term and conditioned on continuing compliance with these Terms.

The license permits:

• Personal review of signals, regime calls, and factor readings
• Internal use within the subscriber's own research process
• Citation of published metrics with proper attribution
• Discussion of framework conclusions in private professional contexts

2. What Is Prohibited

The license expressly prohibits:

• Redistribution — Copying, republishing, posting, sharing, mirroring, or transmitting any portion of the framework, methodology, validation files, or output to third parties.
• AI Training — Using any framework content, regime data, validation files, or output as training data for machine learning models, large language models, or AI systems of any kind.
• Reverse Engineering of Trade Secrets — Attempting to derive, recreate, or replicate the underlying classifiers, factor weights, threshold logic, or proprietary methodology through methods other than independent development from public information. Reverse engineering using information obtained through breach of these Terms, or from non-public sources, is prohibited.
• Scraping & Automation — Programmatic, scripted, or automated access not explicitly authorized; scraping output for any purpose; building bots that harvest framework signals.
• Commercial Exploitation — Resale, sublicensing, white-labeling, productization, or incorporation of framework output into any commercial product or service offered to third parties.
• Account Sharing — Permitting access by anyone other than the named subscriber; multi-user access requires institutional licensing.

3. Not Investment Advice — Critical Disclosure

RegimeSignal™ is an analytical research platform providing market knowledge, tools, and signals for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be relied upon as the sole basis for investment or trading decisions and is not investment advice.

Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, financial planner, or fiduciary. Nothing displayed on this platform — including signal outputs, regime classifications, narrative interpretations, AI-generated commentary, or any other content — constitutes investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, a solicitation, or an offer of any kind.

Not based on individual circumstances. Platform output is not based on consideration of any subscriber's individual financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon, tax situation, or other personal circumstances. Platform output should not be considered information sufficient upon which to base any decision. No representation is made regarding the suitability of platform output for any particular subscriber. Subscribers should consult a licensed financial advisor, tax professional, or other qualified professional regarding their specific circumstances before making any decision.

Signal outputs and regime classifications are research output only. Subscribers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and should consult with a licensed financial advisor, tax professional, or other qualified professional before making investment decisions.

Past market signal record does not guarantee future results. Walk-forward validation metrics describe historical signal results under specific market conditions observed in the validation window. They do not guarantee future signal accuracy. Market conditions are inherently uncertain and subject to change; quantitative models, however rigorously validated, can fail to anticipate future regimes.

By accessing the platform, subscriber acknowledges that they understand these limitations and that any investment decisions made in reliance on platform output are made at their own risk and discretion.

4. Statistical Validation Limitations

Walk-forward validation produces historical results estimates, not future-results guarantees. Subscribers should understand the inherent limitations of the underlying statistics:

• Point estimates with uncertainty. Reported precision, false-positive rate (FPR), recall, and AUC are point estimates from finite samples. True out-of-sample results lie within a confidence interval around each reported value, not at the value itself. A signal reporting 86% precision could realistically perform anywhere in a 75–93% band depending on which portion of the validation window you weight.
• Small-sample effects on rare events. Bear markets are rare. Bear Regime Signal (BRS) validates against 8 financially-driven bear cycles in 25+ years; Market Break Signal Tier 2 (MBS T2) against 4 corrections in 154 OOS months; Regime Recovery Signal (RRS) against 23 outperform events. Statistical confidence narrows with sample size — confidence intervals on rare-event signals are wider than headline numbers suggest. Bootstrap and leave-one-cycle-out tests in our published validation files quantify this; the indicator should be treated as confirmatory evidence rather than a primary trigger.
• Regime non-stationarity. Markets evolve. Factor relationships that held during 2000–2025 may degrade or invert in future regimes (changing rate environment, structural inflation shifts, AI-driven trading changes, geopolitical regime shifts, sovereign-debt dynamics). Walk-forward training adapts to regime changes after they occur, with a lag — not before. Models can fail silently when the underlying data-generating process changes faster than the model refit cadence can capture.
• False positives are real and recurring. Even at 2.5%–6.5% FPR, signals will fire incorrectly. Across a multi-year holding horizon, expect false alerts — the precision metric does not eliminate them, only reduces their frequency. Subscribers should expect and plan for false-positive events in any subscription year.
• Operating-point selection risk. Where operating-point or hyperparameter selection was performed on the same OOS window the published metrics report on (explicitly disclosed for RRS), reported metrics may be optimistic versus a fully blind out-of-sample test. This limitation is documented in the relevant locked spec files and is one of the explicit reasons for commissioning independent PhD review.
• Cross-validation is not the future. Walk-forward validation is the gold standard for time-series ML — it eliminates look-ahead bias and respects temporal causality. It does not guarantee future results. The most robust validation framework cannot anticipate regime shifts that have no historical precedent.
• Aggregate metrics versus individual signals. Aggregate ~84% precision and ~4% FPR are simple means across four signals with different OOS windows, different feature sets, and different event base rates. Individual signal results can deviate from the aggregate; subscribers should reference per-signal metrics for any specific decision.

For full validation evidence including bootstrap confidence intervals, leave-one-cycle-out tests, and per-cycle robustness tables, see the PhD Evaluator Package methodology documents. Subscribers acknowledge that all signal output is statistical inference, not deterministic forecasting, and that historical validation does not eliminate future-results risk.

5. AI / LLM Output Disclaimer

RegimeSignal™ uses large language models (LLMs) to generate narrative interpretations, summaries, and contextual commentary on top of the deterministic quantitative signals.

AI-generated narrative output may contain inaccuracies, hallucinations, errors, or omissions. AI is an interpretive layer over the underlying signals — it does not alter, override, or compute those signals. The deterministic quantitative metrics (BRS composite scores, Market Break Signal Tier 1 (MBS T1)/T2 probabilities, RRS probabilities, validation statistics) are the source of truth; AI commentary is supplementary.

Subscribers should verify AI-generated claims against the underlying quantitative metrics displayed on the platform before relying on any narrative statement. Where AI output and the underlying signals appear inconsistent, the underlying signals govern.

Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC makes no representation or warranty regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of AI-generated narrative output.

6. Trademarks & Brand Marks

The following are trademarks of Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC, used to identify the framework and its components:

• RegimeSignal™ — the complete framework (federal trademark application pending)
• HybridBrain™ — the exogenous risk overlay (federal trademark application pending)

Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC asserts common-law trademark rights in the marks above by virtue of use in commerce, and has filed federal trademark applications with the United States Patent and Trademark Office for one or more of these marks. Use of these marks for any purpose other than referring to the framework as published is prohibited without written authorization. Subscribers may cite the framework by name in private professional contexts but may not use the marks in marketing, branding, or commercial materials. Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC reserves all rights and remedies available under the Lanham Act and applicable common law.

7. Copyright & Trade Secret Protection

All content on this platform — including but not limited to: regime classifications, walk-forward OOS labels, validation metrics, signal definitions, factor architectures, decomposition methodologies, narrative explanations, visualizations, and source data files — is original creative work protected automatically under U.S. copyright law (17 U.S.C. § 102 et seq.) from the moment of fixation. Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC reserves all rights, including the right to register copyrights with the U.S. Copyright Office and to pursue all available remedies for infringement.

Underlying classifier coefficients, threshold optimization procedures, factor selection methods, and proprietary calibration methodologies are protected as trade secrets under federal law (18 U.S.C. § 1836, Defend Trade Secrets Act) and applicable state-law equivalents. Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC employs reasonable measures — including locked spec files, restricted access, contractual confidentiality, and these Terms — to maintain trade-secret status. Misappropriation through theft, breach of confidence, breach of these Terms, or other improper means carries civil and, where applicable, criminal penalties.

The model architecture, walk-forward validation protocol, and 5-state framework decomposition are original works of authorship. Independent creation of substantially similar work without access to this framework remains permitted; copying, deriving from, or reverse-engineering this work using information obtained through breach of these Terms or from non-public sources is not.

8. Limitation of Liability, Warranty Disclaimer & Service Availability

Warranty Disclaimer. The platform is provided "AS IS" and "AS AVAILABLE" without warranties of any kind, whether express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or uninterrupted availability. Cronus disclaims all warranties to the maximum extent permitted by law.

No Professional Relationship. Use of the platform does not create any fiduciary, advisory, broker-dealer, investment advisor, financial planning, accounting, tax, legal, or other professional relationship between subscriber and Cronus. Cronus is not an investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial professional, and these Terms expressly disclaim the formation of any such relationship.

Service Availability. Cronus does not guarantee continuous, uninterrupted, secure, or error-free operation of the platform. The platform may experience downtime for maintenance, updates, infrastructure failures, third-party data-feed outages, or events beyond Cronus's reasonable control. Subscribers acknowledge that the platform may be unavailable from time to time and waive any claim for damages arising from such unavailability.

Third-Party Data & Services. The platform incorporates data from third-party sources including but not limited to the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system, market data providers, news feeds, and other public and licensed data services. Cronus does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or availability of any third-party data and is not liable for errors, omissions, delays, or failures attributable to third-party data sources or service providers. Where third-party data is corrected, revised, or restated by its source, signal output may change accordingly.

Force Majeure. Cronus shall not be liable for any failure or delay in performance arising from causes beyond its reasonable control, including but not limited to: acts of God, natural disasters, pandemics, war, terrorism, civil unrest, government action, regulatory changes, market halts or trading suspensions, internet or telecommunications failures, cyberattacks or security incidents, third-party service outages (including data providers, cloud-hosting providers, or payment processors), or other events of force majeure.

Assumption of Risk. Subscribers expressly acknowledge that they understand the analytical, statistical, and market-related limitations described in §3 (Investment Disclaimer), §4 (Statistical Limitations), and §5 (AI Output Disclaimer), and assume all risk associated with their interpretation and use of platform output.

Liability Cap. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Cronus's total aggregate liability for any and all claims arising from or related to the platform — whether in contract, tort (including negligence), strict liability, statute, or otherwise — shall not exceed the amount paid by subscriber to Cronus in the twelve (12) months immediately preceding the claim. For free-tier, trial, or non-paying users, total aggregate liability shall not exceed USD $100.

Excluded Damages. In no event shall Cronus be liable for any indirect, incidental, consequential, special, exemplary, or punitive damages of any kind, including but not limited to lost profits, lost revenue, lost data, business interruption, investment losses, opportunity costs, reputational harm, or any damages arising from reliance on platform output, even if Cronus has been advised of the possibility of such damages and even if any limited remedy fails of its essential purpose.

Time-Limited Claims. Any claim arising from or related to use of the platform must be brought within one (1) year after the cause of action accrues, or it shall be permanently barred. This shortened limitations period applies to the maximum extent permitted by applicable law.

Jurisdictional Carve-Out. Some jurisdictions do not allow the exclusion or limitation of certain damages or warranties; in such jurisdictions Cronus's liability shall be limited to the maximum extent permitted by applicable law.

Essential Basis. Subscriber acknowledges that the limitations in this §8 are an essential basis of the bargain between the parties and that Cronus would not provide the platform without them.

9. Indemnification

Subscriber agrees to indemnify, defend, and hold harmless Cronus, its members, officers, directors, employees, contractors, agents, and affiliates from and against any and all claims, demands, causes of action, losses, liabilities, damages, judgments, settlements, costs, and expenses (including reasonable attorneys' fees and costs of litigation or arbitration) arising out of or related to:

• (a) Subscriber's breach of these Terms;
• (b) Subscriber's misuse of the platform, including any unauthorized redistribution, AI training use, scraping, account sharing, reverse engineering, or commercial exploitation;
• (c) Subscriber's reliance on platform output for any decision, including investment, trading, business, financial, tax, or legal decisions;
• (d) Any third-party claim arising from Subscriber's use of the platform or platform output, including claims of investment loss, advice-based liability, or professional malpractice attributable to Subscriber;
• (e) Subscriber's violation of any applicable law, regulation, or third-party right.

Cronus reserves the right, at its own expense, to assume the exclusive defense and control of any matter otherwise subject to indemnification by Subscriber, in which case Subscriber shall cooperate fully in such defense.

10. Termination

Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC reserves the right to terminate this license immediately and without refund upon evidence of any breach of these Terms — including unauthorized redistribution, AI training use, scraping, account sharing, reverse engineering, or commercial exploitation. Termination does not waive Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC's right to pursue civil and criminal remedies for ongoing or past breaches. Subscribers may cancel their subscription at any time per the cancellation procedures described in the Subscribe tab; cancellation does not relieve subscribers of obligations accrued prior to cancellation.

11. Enforcement & Remedies

Unauthorized use of the framework, its output, or its underlying methodology may result in:

• Immediate license termination without refund
• Civil action for copyright infringement — recovery of actual damages, disgorgement of infringer profits, and injunctive relief; statutory damages and attorney fees may be available where copyrights are timely registered (17 U.S.C. § 412)
• Civil action for trade secret misappropriation under the Defend Trade Secrets Act (18 U.S.C. § 1836) — actual damages, exemplary damages up to 2× actual where willful and malicious, and attorney fees
• Referral to federal authorities for criminal prosecution under the Economic Espionage Act (18 U.S.C. § 1832) where applicable
• Injunctive relief preventing continued use
• Recovery of all profits derived from unauthorized use

Subscribers acknowledge that monetary damages alone may be inadequate to remedy a breach of these Terms involving misappropriation of trade secrets, and that Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC shall be entitled to seek equitable relief, including injunctive relief and specific performance, without the requirement of posting bond, in addition to all other available remedies.

12. Governing Law, Mandatory Arbitration & Class-Action Waiver

Governing Law. These Terms and any dispute arising from or related to them shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the State of Delaware, without regard to its conflict-of-laws provisions. Cronus is a Delaware Limited Liability Company with its principal office at 8 The Green, Suite D, Dover, DE 19901.

Mandatory Binding Arbitration. Any dispute, claim, or controversy arising out of or relating to these Terms, the platform, or any RegimeSignal™ or HybridBrain™ output, signal, alert, market call, or content (collectively, "Disputes") shall be resolved exclusively by final and binding arbitration administered by the American Arbitration Association (AAA) in accordance with its Commercial Arbitration Rules then in effect, conducted in the State of Delaware. Judgment on any arbitration award may be entered in any court of competent jurisdiction. The arbitrator shall have no authority to award punitive, incidental, consequential, special, or exemplary damages.

Class-Action & Representative-Proceeding Waiver. Subscriber and Cronus each waive any right to participate in any class action, class arbitration, collective action, or representative proceeding of any kind. All disputes shall be resolved on an individual basis only. The arbitrator may not consolidate or join more than one person's claims and may not preside over any form of representative or class proceeding.

Jury Trial Waiver. To the extent any Dispute is not subject to arbitration (whether by court order, regulatory exception, or otherwise), the parties expressly waive any right to a jury trial, and any such Dispute shall be resolved exclusively in the state or federal courts located in Delaware, with the parties consenting to personal jurisdiction and venue in those courts.

Carve-Outs. Notwithstanding the foregoing, either party may seek (i) injunctive or equitable relief in court for actual or threatened infringement, misappropriation, or violation of intellectual property rights or breach of confidentiality obligations, and (ii) relief in small-claims court for any Dispute within that court's jurisdictional limits. These carve-outs do not waive arbitration for any other Dispute.

Severability of Class Waiver. If the class-action waiver above is found to be unenforceable in any proceeding, then the remainder of this §12 shall be null and void as to that proceeding, and the Dispute shall proceed in court (not in arbitration), but the class-action waiver itself shall remain in effect to the maximum extent permitted by law in all other Disputes.

13. Entire Agreement, Severability & Modification

These Terms constitute the entire agreement between Subscriber and Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC regarding use of the platform, and supersede all prior or contemporaneous communications, agreements, or understandings, whether written or oral.

If any provision of these Terms is held by a court of competent jurisdiction to be invalid, illegal, or unenforceable, the remaining provisions shall remain in full force and effect, and the invalid provision shall be reformed to the minimum extent necessary to render it enforceable while preserving the parties' intent.

Cronus Market Intelligence, LLC may modify these Terms from time to time by posting an updated version on the platform; continued use following any modification constitutes acceptance of the modified Terms. The version of the Terms in effect at the time of any claim shall govern.

No waiver of any term or breach of these Terms shall be deemed a waiver of any subsequent term or breach. Failure to enforce any provision of these Terms shall not be deemed a waiver of the right to enforce that provision.

14. No Joint Venture, Partnership, or Agency

Nothing in these Terms or the use of the platform creates any joint venture, partnership, employment, agency, fiduciary, or franchise relationship between Subscriber and Cronus. Neither party has authority to bind, contract on behalf of, or otherwise act for the other. Subscriber shall not represent any contrary relationship to any third party.

15. Export Controls & Sanctions Compliance

Cronus does not represent that the platform or its content is appropriate or available for use in any particular jurisdiction. Subscribers who access the platform do so on their own initiative and are solely responsible for compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of their jurisdiction, including U.S. export control laws administered by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), economic sanctions administered by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), and equivalent foreign laws.

By accessing the platform, Subscriber represents and warrants that Subscriber: (i) is not located in any country or region subject to comprehensive U.S. sanctions (including but not limited to Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, the Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions of Ukraine); (ii) is not on any U.S. government list of prohibited or restricted parties (including the OFAC Specially Designated Nationals List, BIS Denied Persons List, or Entity List); and (iii) will not use the platform for any purpose prohibited by applicable export controls or sanctions. Cronus reserves the right to suspend or terminate access immediately if it believes in good faith that continued access would violate any applicable export control or sanctions law.

16. Anti-Circumvention & Competitive Use Prohibition

Subscriber agrees that Subscriber shall not use the platform, platform output, or any information derived from the platform to build, train, develop, market, or operate any product or service that competes with RegimeSignal™, HybridBrain™, or any successor or related product offered by Cronus. This includes but is not limited to: (a) creating substitute regime-classification, market-signal, or quantitative-research products; (b) developing competing AI/LLM systems trained on platform output; (c) building data products that resell, repackage, or derive value from platform metrics or methodology; (d) creating consultancy, advisory, or signal-publication services that incorporate platform output. If Cronus reasonably believes Subscriber is engaged in any such competitive use, Cronus may immediately terminate access, pursue all remedies available under §11, and seek injunctive relief without bond per §12.

17. Backup, Data Loss & Account Information

Subscriber is solely responsible for backing up any platform output, data, or analysis Subscriber wishes to retain. Cronus does not guarantee retention of historical signal outputs, AI commentary, account history, or other platform data, and reserves the right to delete, archive, or modify such data at any time without notice. Cronus disclaims all liability for any loss of platform data, account information, signal-output history, or derived work product, including without limitation losses arising from infrastructure failures, software bugs, security incidents, account termination, or service discontinuation.

Subscriber represents that all account information provided to Cronus is accurate, current, and complete, and Subscriber agrees to maintain and promptly update such information. Subscriber is responsible for safeguarding access credentials and for all activity occurring under Subscriber's account.

18. Survival of Provisions

The following sections shall survive any termination, expiration, or cancellation of these Terms or Subscriber's access to the platform, and shall continue in full force and effect: §2 (Prohibitions), §3 (Investment Disclaimer), §4 (Statistical Limitations), §5 (AI Output Disclaimer), §6 (Trademarks), §7 (Copyright & Trade Secret), §8 (Limitation of Liability), §9 (Indemnification), §11 (Enforcement & Remedies), §12 (Governing Law, Arbitration & Class Waiver), §13 (Entire Agreement & Severability), §14 (No Joint Venture), §15 (Export Controls), §16 (Anti-Circumvention), §17 (Backup & Data Loss), §18 (this Section), §19 (Notices), §20 (Assignment), and §21 (No Reliance). Any rights or obligations that by their nature should survive termination shall do so regardless of whether listed above.

19. Notices

All legal notices, demands, or communications to Cronus must be in writing and sent to:

Notices are effective upon actual receipt by Cronus. Cronus may provide notices to Subscriber by email to the address associated with Subscriber's account, by posting in-platform messages, or by updating these Terms with the revised version posted on the platform; any such notice is deemed received within twenty-four (24) hours of being sent or posted.

20. Assignment

Subscriber may not assign, transfer, sublicense, or delegate any rights or obligations under these Terms without Cronus's prior written consent; any attempted assignment in violation of this section is void. Cronus may freely assign or transfer these Terms (in whole or in part) and any of its rights or obligations hereunder to an affiliate, successor entity, acquirer, or other third party without Subscriber's consent. These Terms shall be binding upon and inure to the benefit of the parties' permitted successors and assigns.

21. No Reliance on Extra-Contractual Statements

Subscriber acknowledges and agrees that, in entering into these Terms and using the platform, Subscriber has not relied on any representation, warranty, statement, promise, projection, or assurance of any kind — whether oral, written, marketing-related, social-media, in-platform AI-generated, or otherwise — that is not expressly set forth in these Terms. All prior and contemporaneous understandings between the parties are merged into and superseded by these Terms per §13. No employee, agent, contractor, or representative of Cronus has authority to make any representation or warranty on behalf of Cronus that varies, modifies, or supplements these Terms, except as set forth in a written amendment signed by an authorized officer of Cronus.

See also: Privacy Policy — how we collect, use, and protect your information.