Institutional-grade · open to all
Institutional intelligence,
without the institutional gate.
RegimeSignal™ delivers the kind of full-cycle market intelligence that has historically lived inside institutional research desks — proprietary S&P 500 cycle work, walk-forward validated early warning signals, and HybridBrain™ exogenous-event detection (AI + HI). Every subscriber gets the same model, the same data, and the same research.
Proprietary S&P 500 cycle research
Original cycle work mapping bull, weakening, correction, and recovery regimes against 33+ years of S&P 500 history — with calibration and analogs you don't find in retail tools.
Daily & weekly briefs
Daily market call from the live model and weekly research briefs that frame the regime, the signals, and the watch triggers — written from the model's reading, not from narrative.
HybridBrain™ — AI + HI
A 50% AI / 50% Human Intelligence layer designed to catch exogenous events — geopolitical shocks, supply chain breaks, pandemics — that pure quant models systematically miss.
The exogenous-event problem
Where most models fail.
Quant models read what markets are pricing — yield curves, credit spreads, earnings revisions, breadth, volatility. They cannot read what markets have not yet seen: a shipping lane closing, a regional war escalating, a grid going down, a pandemic emerging.
HybridBrain™ is RegimeSignal™'s third intelligence layer. Three independent AI scanners (Anthropic, Gemini, Perplexity) score live exogenous risk across nine canonical categories. A 30-year human-judgment overlay sits on top — a deliberate, logged decision, not a black box.
The output adjusts state interpretation when the world moves faster than the data. It does not invent bear calls; it amplifies deterioration already present and accelerates recovery scoring once exogenous risk resolves.
What's in the model
The full institutional stack.
Four validated signals
Bear Regime Signal, Market Break Tier 1 (pullback), Tier 2 (correction), and Regime Recovery Signal — walk-forward validated, refit monthly.
Bull / Bear Velocity
Continuous directional gauges (BWS / BES) describing the developing strength of the prevailing regime in real time.
Bull Health Tracker
25-factor health gauge for an active bull, calibrated against 33 years of bull history with floor / median / peak context.
Model DNA & factors
Full per-signal factor universe, live FRED + market feeds, top drivers today, and 1 / 3 / 6 / 12-month deltas for every input.
Daily market call
Live state of the model — regime, direction, health, active classifiers, and a plain-English read for the day.
Weekly research briefs
Original cycle research and watch-trigger updates published on a weekly cadence, written from the model's reading.
HybridBrain™ ERI
Exogenous Risk Index — three-AI consensus plus 30-year human judgment, scored across nine canonical risk categories.
Regime history & analogs
Trailing regime states, prior calls with forward outcomes, and closest historical analogs for today's profile.
Methodology & validation
Walk-forward OOS performance with sample sizes, AUC, precision, and false-positive rates per signal — built for due diligence.
The thesis
One model. One subscription. No tiered intelligence.
Institutional-grade market intelligence shouldn't be reserved for institutions. Every RegimeSignal™ subscriber sees the same proprietary cycle work, the same walk-forward validated signals, the same HybridBrain™ overlay, and the same daily and weekly research.
Important note
RegimeSignal™ is a market intelligence and research product. It is not investment advice, a trading system, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All performance figures are derived from walk-forward validation and describe historical signal behaviour; they do not guarantee future results.
Early warning, before consensus.
Get access to the RegimeSignal™ framework — four walk-forward validated signals and Bull / Bear Velocity gauges for the S&P 500.